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Timothy K. Fife : Markets Update | EURO Holds During US Session

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EURO Holds During US Session

A change in character for the Euro as it did not get slammed during the US session as per normal. It has held its own against major currencies on Thursday, March 12 trading. Now, there was some US Dollar profit taking and a low of 1.4288 EUR/USD is not a strong base for support as the Dollar is still at 12 year highs and 7 years highs against the YEN, so caution about a reversal must be heeded.

Money is pouring out of the United States and going to Europe at the moment. The DAX is a beneficiary from some of this flow. The Euro is the great Inverse to the DAX, as the Euro weakens the DAX gets stronger. Analysts fear that the DAX may now be topping out as yesterdays action shows no gains but for 2015, the DAX has had an unprecedented rise of 2500 plus points while the Euro’s value has plummeted at the same parallel speed. Any signs of a weakening DAX could ignite the Euro buyers and weaken the Dollar. That’s the plan.

Just when you thought “this is it” for those damn US Stocks after dismal losses from Tuesday – Wednesday, they rebound with a quick ferocity as the DOW gained 200 plus points in high volatility trading that was the biggest move in 5 weeks. The reason seems disappointing US Retail Sales may push Interest Rate rises further back in time. This is a massive shift in expectation and also played on the US Dollar showing some weakness.

BRITISH POUND – it weakened across the board as BoE Carney said he is in no hurry to raise Interest Rates.
NZ DOLLAR – it was the strongest currency from yesterday’s action as RBNZ has kept rates unchanged.

Commodities were up during the early trading day but along comes the US Session, as so often happens a quick reversal takes Gold, Silver, and Oil immediately in the opposite direction wiping out previous gains. Gold ended up just a couple of dollars below open, no major damage, Oil was the biggest loser $ 1.52 down to finish at 48.87 WTI a 6 week low. Silver actually managed to have a break even day, a few pennies up and has opened up the new day in positive mode at 15.60 at this time.

News to end the week for Friday March 13th:

EUROPE – No major red-tag announcements
CANADA – Employment Change and Unemployment Rate
UNITED STATES – PPI – inflation Indicator – University of Michigan -Sentiment report
GREAT BRITAIN – Bank of England economist statement

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